Europe’s economic hubs drowning in risk: XDI warns flood damage risk rising in Milan, Paris, Frankfurt and beyond

New XDI benchmark report reveals systemic EU flood damage risk with ranking of every EU state and province

(London - Monday, 8th September 2025): Europe’s financial and industrial engines are facing escalating risk of damage due to climate change extreme weather, with the risk of flood damage to property and infrastructure already estimated to be 30% worse due to climate and projected to double by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario, according to a new benchmarking report from world leading physical climate risk analysts, XDI (Cross Dependency Initiative).

The analysis, Flooded Future: Europe’s Rising Economic Risk, ranks every EU country, state and province by modelled risk of flood damage to the built environment from riverine and surface water flooding. It highlights that many of the highest-risk areas are also Europe’s economic and supply chain hubs:  Milan, Paris, Frankfurt, Warsaw, Rotterdam, Antwerp and Barcelona among them.

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“This analysis shows climate change is putting the beating heart of Europe’s economy at risk. From Milan’s finance and design sector to the banking core of Frankfurt, and from the tourism hub of Barcelona to the global ports of Rotterdam and Antwerp, escalating flood damage threatens not only local communities but the flow of goods, finance and energy across global supply chains,” said Dr Karl Mallon, XDI Director of Science and Technology. 

Key findings include:

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• EU economic powerhouses are on the frontline: Highest-risk cities and regions include Milan (Lombardia, 22% of Italy’s GDP), Paris (Île-de-France, 31% of France’s GDP), Frankfurt (Hessen, 9% of Germany’s GDP), Antwerp (Vlaanderen, 58% of Belgium’s GDP), and Barcelona (Cataluña, 20% of Spain’s GDP). Together, these hubs account for a disproportionate share of national output, making flood damage risk a systemic EU-wide and even global concern. 

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• Concentration of risk: The EU's 20 most exposed regions are concentrated in just five countries: Italy, Germany, France, Poland and Belgium.

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• Runaway growth in damage risk: Several hubs are projected to see more than three-fold  increases in risk of damage to property and infrastructure by 2100: Campania (+313%), Bayern (+219%), Île-de-France (+110%), Toscana (+148%), Lombardia, (+111%), Baden-Württemberg Vlaanderen (+166%)

• North and south alike: Sweden, Finland and Denmark record some of the steepest relative growth in flood damage risk since 1990, alongside Italy, France and Germany at the top of the risk rankings.

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“The imperative is clear: accurately identifying risk is the first step to resilience. EU institutions and Member States must act on this knowledge – both by cutting emissions to limit future hazard escalation, and by accelerating investment in property and infrastructure adaptation to protect lives, assets, and economic stability. The decisions taken today will determine whether Europe is prepared for the floods of tomorrow,” said Dr Mallon

The report uses XDI’s Climate Risk Engines and open source Gross Domestic Climate Risk dataset to model Aggregated Damage Ratio - a comparable measure of risk of damage to buildings relative to replacement cost - for each EU state and province under a high emissions pathway (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5).

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